Dealmaker Expectations Take a Hit for Q2: ACG Survey

Middle-market dealmakers have developed a reputation for their unwavering, albeit cautious, optimism in recent years. Yet amid geopolitical uncertainties and economic pressures, investors appear to be facing some roadblocks to their M&A plans.

ACG’s Q2 2026 Market Pulse Survey polled ACG members about their expectations for the six months ahead, finding 54.7% of respondents expecting an increase of M&A activity. That’s a significant decline from 81% who said the same in Q1.

The survey also found a 9% quarter-over-quarter increase in the number of respondents who expect M&A activity to remain the same in the coming six months.

A look at financing sentiment also found a decrease in dealmakers who consider the debt environment to be “somewhat favorable” (48.3% in Q2, compared to 64% in Q1).

More than a third of respondents say they are “neutral” on their financing outlook.

Quality Businesses Come to Auction

According to the survey, dealmakers’ outlook on the biggest drivers of M&A decision-making over the coming six months remained the same quarter-over-quarter, with respondents ranking “timing and market conditions,” “pressure to return capital to investors,” and “valuation levels” as their top three choices once again.

But a look at the risks that dealmakers are paying close attention to this quarter reveals a few shifts.

Though “political or geopolitical instability” once again ranked as respondents’ top risk, “economic downturn or recession” rose from third place in Q1 to second place in Q2. “General market volatility” climbed from fifth place last quarter to third place today.

Interestingly, one of the biggest movers of the survey this quarter is the availability of high-quality businesses coming up for sale: while it was ranked as the fourth-top risk in Q1, this quarter it fell to the bottom of the pack. Only “regulatory scrutiny” ranked lower.

Industry Expectations Hold Steady

Unchanged from last quarter’s survey, middle-market dealmakers’ industry expectations are holding steady.

Business services and manufacturing landed at first and second place, respectively, while technology and healthcare services were tied for third place.

Trailing the pack was media and telecom, as well as retail, which tied for last place.

The Q3 Market Pulse Survey will open in early July.

Carolyn Vallejo is ACG’s Senior Editor.

Middle Market Growth is produced by the Association for Corporate Growth. To learn more about the organization and how to become a member, visit www.acg.org.